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Professors, programmers, and journalists could all be in just a few years (The Guardian). Students will use ChatGPT to their way to degrees (PBS). Sydney, the Bing-based AI (Artificial Intelligence), told a reporter last week that its wants to hack into computers and spread propaganda and misinformation (New York Times). And AI might pose a itself (CNBC).听听

There has been a lot of chatter about AI lately and a lot of fear about what it will mean for people, jobs, and our collective future. We turned to AU economist and statistician Nimai Mehta to ask:听听

What is the future of ChatGPT, and should we be worried about it as a threat to civilization?听听听

These concerns are both premature and . These take humanity from its Sydney-type interactions to the doorsteps of a super-intelligent machine deity capable of complete dominance and the destruction of civilization itself. Before we give credence to such beliefs, consider that ChatGPT has been 鈥渢rained鈥� on several millennia of global human experience as captured and accumulated in text鈥攐ver a million feet of bookshelf space . With its uncanny, probability-based ability to combine coherent strings of text and analysis, ChatGPT offers users unprecedented levels of direct access to human discourse and thought鈥攖he good, bad, and the ugly.听听

As statisticians, we see both variance (noise) and bias in the human experience鈥攏othing less, nothing more, which . The emergence of a super-human entity intent of subjugating human will to its own goal, however, remains alien to our accumulated experience outside of religion and science fiction. Most religions, however, assume a benevolent deity, while Sci-Fi conjures up dystopian worlds. The current, secular, forms of AI, instead, show no sign of taking over, nor substituting for, human intelligence and labor. Instead, they are leading to increased demands on human intelligence, while creating the need for new sets of human skills and tasks, and thus, jobs. We are already seeing this in the , within the , , , etc. The evolving relationship between AI and humans is proving to be complementary rather than domineering.听听

AI will no doubt change the environment in which we teach, learn, and work. This environment will be marked by a few key features鈥攕horter turnover, and, therefore, greater speed for most tasks; a higher potential for economy-wide productivity gains; and greater rewards for humans capable of guiding machine intelligence in productive ways. To be clear, these productivity gains will not allow, say, students to simply 鈥渇ree ride鈥� on machine intelligence. Quite the opposite. Effective use of these systems will require both greater depth and breadth of knowledge on part of the user, along with the ability to integrate insights from different fields. Instead of the rise of a demonic super-intelligence, it seems far more likely AI will drive a revival of the humanities, including an enhanced appreciation of ethical norms to the benefit of all.听

About the Author

As an economist and statistician, Professor Nimai Mehta鈥檚 area of research is on the quality and use of data under varying institutional contexts and within different sectors of the economy. His recent work includes exploring the role of statisticians as expert witnesses within the Anglo-Saxon legal systems, the distinction between data and observed reality in the works of Florence Nightingale, and the quality of property rights laws in India. He was the lead coordinator of a multidisciplinary effort to employ data science, economics, and machine learning to improve data on missing and exploited children. Professor Mehta was previously the principal investigator for a UNICEF project on the quality of education data and reforms in Myanmar, served as Academic Director of the Economic Policy program at AU鈥檚 Washington Semester, and currently serves on the Academic Council of the Indian School of Public Policy, New Delhi.听